Japan

They have mobilised all available laws, systems, policies, regulatory reforms, and budgets under their jurisdiction. Also, the government has approved the GX Promotion Strategy in a Cabinet decision and is shifting towards expanding PV deployment under this strategy.

The decarbonisation efforts towards GX (green transformation) under this strategy consist of four key pillars: thorough promotion of energy conservation, making renewable energy a main power source, utilisation of nuclear power; and eleven other important initiatives.

Regarding making renewable energy a main power source, relevant ministries and agencies have been working in close coordination based on the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan to ensure the achievement of a renewable energy share of 36-38% in the FY 2030 energy mix. In addition to the 2030 targets, the government has formulated a new draft plan of Seventh Strategic Energy Plan aiming for 2040, with a view to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.

The GX Promotion Strategy has been revised into the GX 2040 Vision (draft) from a long-term perspective, covering energy, GX industrial location, GX industrial structure, and GX market creation. The draft of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan, which sets 2040 as the target year, has been presented. According to this draft, the projected energy mix for 2040, based on an estimated total electricity generation of 1.1-1.2 trillion kWh, is as follows: renewable energy at 40-50%, nuclear power at 20%, and thermal power at 30-40%. Renewable energy is positioned as the largest power source, surpassing thermal power. Among them, PV power generation is expected to account for approximately 23-29%, making it the country’s top power source in terms of both capacity and generation, surpassing all other power sources (thermal power was not categorised by fuel type).

The revised draft of the new Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures has set greenhouse gas reduction targets of a 60% reduction by 2035 and a 73% reduction by 2040, compared to 2013 levels.

METI has enforced the revised Act on Special Measures Concerning Procurement of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources by Electricity Utilities (Renewable Energy Act) and initiated efforts to strengthen business discipline aimed at ensuring harmony with local communities. To promote the stabilisation of renewable energy as a power source and its expansion, METI has introduced the Renewable Energy 100-Year Initiative and announced the Action Plan for Making Renewable Energy a Main Power Source. Additionally, it has formulated the Next-Generation Solar Cell Strategy to establish a domestic PV supply chain.

MoE has continued the Decarbonisation Leading Areas Promotion Project while expanding support for PV deployment by local governments and private companies. Furthermore, MoE has set a target of installing 4.82 GW of PV systems by local governments on their land and facilities by 2030.

As part of inter-ministerial policy initiatives, MoE and METI have formulated a recycling system aimed at mandating the recycling of PV modules, which are expected to be discarded in large quantities from PV power plants. METI and MLIT have set PV installation goals for newly built homes in FY 2027 at 37.5% for ready-built detached houses and 87.5% for custom-built ones.

The annual PV installed capacity in 2024 is estimated to be 5.5 GWdc (preliminary figure).

The draft of the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan, which sets targets for 2040, has been presented. According to this draft, the projected energy mix for 2040, based on an estimated total electricity generation of 1.1-1.2 trillion kWh, is as follows: renewable energy at 40-50%, nuclear power at 20%, and thermal power at 30-40%. Renewable energy is positioned as the largest power source, surpassing thermal power. Among them, PV power generation is expected to account for approximately 23-29%, making it the country’s top power source in terms of both capacity and generation, surpassing all other power sources (with thermal power not categorized by fuel type).

NEDO is conducting the Development of Technologies to Promote Photovoltaic Power Generation as a Primary Power Source (FY 2020-FY 2024). As part of technology development to create new markets for PV power generation, research and technology development are being conducted on ultra-lightweight film-type solar cells, wall-mounted PV systems, solar cells for mobility applications, and multi-junction solar cells. As part of this project, a thin-film triple-junction compound solar cell developed by Sharp was installed on the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)’s small lander SLIM (Smart Lander for Investigating Moon) and began generating power on the lunar surface in January 2024.

In the development of technologies for making PV a long-term stable power source, the 2024 edition of the Design and Installation Guidelines for Building-mounted PV Systems, which supports rooftop and wall-mounted installations, was published in August 2024. In the development of separation and material recycling technologies for PV modules, Tokuyama, a collaborative research partner, is advancing a recycling business for disposed PV modules. Additionally, as part of common foundational technologies, efforts are ongoing to develop high-precision performance evaluation techniques for new types of solar cells and solar radiation forecasting technologies to support next-generation O&M.

NEDO is implementing the Next-Generation Solar Cell Development Project under the Green Innovation Fund (GIF) project, developing fundamental and commercialization technologies of film-type perovskite solar cells (PSCs) for the project term of ten years from FY 2021 to FY 2030, and demonstration projects started in FY 2024. As the first phase, Sekisui Chemical and Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) are conducting mass production technology development and field demonstrations over a five-year period. In 2024, Sekisui Chemical, Enecoat Technologies, Toshiba, Peccel Technologies, Ricoh, and PXP began demonstrative installations at various facilities in collaboration with local governments and private sector users.

As for demonstrations on PV system utilisation technology, METI, NEDO, and MoE are conducting demonstration projects on power grid control, including PV and storage batteries. In 2024, METI and MoE jointly continued the Net Zero Energy Building (ZEB) demonstration project. MoE is conducting technology development and demonstrations aimed at achieving carbon neutrality. In 2024, technology development and demonstrations for direct current power supply from PV systems and road surface PV power generation were conducted, along with a landscape evaluation test of PV module installations in national parks. In the Decarbonisation Leading Areas selected by MoE, demonstrations related to PV power generation are also planned as part of local governments’ decarbonisation efforts.

Until around 2022, most PV installations in Japan were driven by the FIT programme. However, due to the decline in FIT purchase prices, the growing demand for renewable energy procurement among consumers, and rising electricity prices, installations independent of the FIT programme, such as those utilising PPAs, subsidies, or self-financing, have surged. These non-FIT installations are estimated to account for approx. 18% of the annual installed capacity.

The business environment for PV power generation is undergoing significant changes, with trends shifting towards self-consumption models, community-based utilisation, battery storage integration, virtual PPAs, and VPP applications. There is increasing demand for solutions that contribute to decarbonisation and respond to disasters. As a result, businesses and local communities are taking the lead in developing new approaches to energy utilisation.

As new installation schemes, numerous cases and plans have been announced for virtual PPAs, which trade only environmental value, in addition to offsite PPAs, which enable the simultaneous trading of electricity and environmental value from remote power plants.

As a new installation location, the adoption of solar carports in parking lots has increased. Installations have expanded from large-scale MW-class projects at commercial and public facilities, airports, and universities, etc., to smaller residential systems. The added benefits of providing shade and shelter from rain have contributed to the growing recognition of solar carports as a viable new installation option.

The number of farmland conversion permits for agrivoltaics utilising arable and idle farmland has been increasing linearly in recent years. While most installations were previously under 50 kW, their scale has expanded to several hundred kW to several MW, and such initiatives are spreading across various regions. The permit criteria for temporary farmland conversion to install agrivoltaics, which were previously specified in a director-general notice, have been codified in the Enforcement Regulations of the Farmland Act, and guidelines for the permit criteria have also been established. On the other hand, strict measures such as the temporary suspension of FIP/FIT subsidies have been implemented for improper cases, such as the failure to produce crops on the farmland beneath PV systems.

For floating PV (FPV) installations, a small-scale demonstration test at sea has begun in Tokyo Bay, raising expectations for future expansion to offshore installations.

Cable thefts have become widespread in Japan, especially in the northern Kanto and Tohoku regions, leading to measures such as the installation of surveillance cameras and alarms, as well as the switch to cheaper aluminium cables with low market prices of raw materials. Additionally, due to an increase in cases of damage to PV power plants from extreme storms and heavy rain, as well as cable thefts, insurance premiums for PV systems have risen, and some new insurance contracts have been suspended. Industry organisations are working with related companies to consider countermeasures.