TASK — 16

Journal Article: The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts: A probabilistic benchmarking exercise

authors(s):

  • Philippe Lauret, Rodrigo Alonso-Suárez, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, John Boland, Mathieu David, Wiebke Herzberg, Josselin Le Gall La Salle, Elke Lorenz, Lennard Visser, Wilfried van Sark, Tobias Zech

doi:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121574

IEA PVPS Task 16 has released a detailed study assessing the added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts. This research, conducted by five participants in eight European sites, aims to propose to the solar forecasters community a comprehensive benchmarking exercise related to intra-day and intra-hour solar irradiance forecasts.

Study Overview

Despite the growing awareness in academia and industry of the importance of solar probabilistic forecasting for further enhancing the integration of variable photovoltaic power generation into electrical power grids, there is still no benchmark study comparing a wide range of solar probabilistic methods across various local climates. Having identified this research gap, experts involved in the activities of IEA PVPS T16 agreed to establish a benchmarking exercise to evaluate the quality of intra-hour and intra-day probabilistic irradiance forecasts.

The exercise highlights different forecast quality depending on the method used, and more importantly, on the input data fed into the models. In particular, the benchmarking procedure reveals that the association of a point forecast that blends ground, satellite and NWP data with a statistical technique generates high-quality probabilistic forecasts