Regional PV Power Modelling and Forecasting
Day: Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Time: 17:00 PM – 18:30 PM
Venue: World Trade Center (WTC), Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Access: Open to all registered conference participants
Current power systems increasingly include significant levels of distributed PV generation, with climate targets driving further growth. As a result, many applications require accurate estimates or forecasts of the aggregated PV output and feed-in of a given portfolio (e.g. congestion management, market bidding, dispatching, reserve sizing, and integration studies).
Modelling and forecasting the aggregate output of an entire regional fleet requires dedicated approaches beyond traditional site-level workflows, accounting for factors such as spatial distribution and technical characteristics of the systems comprised in a fleet, as well as handling inherent data availability limitations (e.g. plant-level generation or descriptive metadata on the many plants contributing to overall feed-in).
This workshop provides a concise introduction to regional PV modelling and forecasting, its specificities, and its role in powers system applications. Building on ongoing work within IEA PVPS Task 16, and contributions from invited speakers, it will present the state of the art, a comparison of different approaches, emerging needs, and how improved regional PV data can support more reliable and efficient power system operation.
Presentations
Regional PV Power Modelling and Forecasting
Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, University of Lisbon
Impact of self-consumption on regional PV power feed-in
Elke Lorenz , Tobias Zech , Daniel Eilertz , Nils Straub ,Benedikt Köpfer (Fraunhofer ISE), Hannes Caesar (Greenventory GmbH) and Lukas Becherer (TransnetBW)
The importance of national solar PV capacity estimates: A case study of Great Britain
Alastair Buckley, Julian Briggs, Herald Olakkengil, Andrew Richards (University of Sheffield), Hussah Alghanem (Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University), Jamie Taylor (University of Sheffield, NESO), Owen Huxley (Summit Energy)
Challenges in regional PV: A perspective of the Dutch grid operator
Laurens Stoop, Wouter Tromp & Simon Veldkamp