WCPEC-8 Side Event: PV Scenarios: now and then (IEA PVPS Task 1)

27 September 2022 - 15:15 - 16:45
WCPEC-8, Milan

Forecasting the development of PV has always been a balancing act between realism and optimism. From the beginning of its deployment, PV scenarios and forecasts have significantly underestimated PV development, with sound arguments. This event will browse through some past scenarios comparing them with actual PV market trajectories, and build on these past experiences to consider what awaits the sector going forward. With PV having reached 1 TW of total installed capacity this year and being poised to cross the 200 GW mark of annual installations in 2022, it is time to reflect on the mistakes from the past and embrace optimism towards the TW-era.


Session speakers

  • Gaëtan Masson, IEA-PVPS Task 1 Manager & Founder and Managing Director, Becquerel Institute, Belgium
  • Christian Breyer, Prof. of Solar Economy, LUT University, Finland
  • Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau – Senior Expert, EC -JRC
  • Izumi Kaizuka, IEA-PVPS Task 1 Manager & Director, Principal Analyst, Business Development Division, RTS Corporation, Japan

Gaëtan Masson, Manager and Founding Director, Becquerel Institute Belgium

15:15 – 15:25
“Latest PVPS numbers and perspective on past scenarios”
Gaëtan Masson, IEA- PVPS Task 1 Manager

15:25 – 15:50
“Global solar PV demand projections until 2050 and beyond – why major scenarios differ”
Christian Breyer, Prof. of Solar Economy, LUT University, Finland

15:50 – 16:15
“PV Scenarios for Europe – From the 1990’s Green Paper to the Solar Communication”
Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau, Senior Expert, EC – JRC

16:15 – 16:40
“Current industry status and comparison with Chinese roadmap targets announced over 10 years ago”
Izumi Kaizuka, IEA-PVPS Task 1 Manager