TASK — 16

Journal Article – A Set of New Tools to Measure the Effective Value of Probabilistic Forecasts of Continuous Variables

authors(s):

  • Josselin Le Gal La Salle, Mathieu David, Philippe Lauret

doi:

https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast7020030

This article introduces a comprehensive framework for assessing the operational and economic benefits of probabilistic forecasting.

The study highlights that while established methods exist for binary events, continuous variables pose unique challenges. The authors propose new diagnostic tools —including the EVC (Effective economic Value of a forecast of Continuous variable) diagram and the OEV (Overall Effective Value) metric— to better capture how forecasts translate into real-world decision-making benefits.